You’ll hear this from me on multiple platforms this week, but the lack of traceable data to the ZOZO Championship creates a complex crippling process because so much of what I do is based on long-term research. My model is built and reconfigured under the premise of trying to mimic these places to fit a statistical narrative, but the loss of numerical information leaves something to be desired.
We’ll see if third-party resources give us something to use for the contest, but my biggest takeaway for the ZOZO Championship is to be methodical and reserved if you don’t have an edge. Remember that no action is required unless some minimum value presents itself and an unplaced bet can often be as good as a winning ticket if it keeps us structured. We’ll talk a bit about some of the values my model wants to dig into over the course of the week, but be sure to play smart!
If you don’t already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There I will provide my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. This sheet is free and published every Monday, so be sure to check it out and build your own numbers from my information database.
Listen, I’m not reinventing the wheel here by mentioning Sungjae Im – who is one of the favorites to come out of Japan with the title – but the key factor to mention is that any market that hasn’t Im favored in their match on Wednesday night shows the bad golfer as favorite, according to my model.
That’s not to say I blindly seek to support him in every spot, and there are situations that will be better than others, but it’s something to keep in mind for a player who ranks first in my weighted form model in the past. 10 weeks.
I took a complete encapsulation of every event anyone has played since the Scottish Open and tried to extrapolate the form to form a bigger picture, and there was no one in that area who got as clean a rating as Im, and to be fair, he’s one of the safest profiles I’ve received on my model in quite some time. Im leads this field in consecutive rounds of shooting par or better (24) and the bogey avoidance and scrambling metrics also put him at the top of the event.
If you tell me the winning score will probably take place around 15 under par, give me all the safety of the South Korean. There can be value for Im on day one against any golfer on the course, but also from an eventing standpoint.
Consider the upside-down motors on my model for day one: Si Woo Kim, Mito Pereira, Rickie Fowler, Sebastian Munoz, and Aaron Rai
The answer is more of a first-round leader concept than something I want to get too invested in when it comes to head-to-head betting, but there are reasons to aggressively try to support Si Woo Kim, Mito Pereira, Rickie Fowler, Sebastian Munoz and Aaron Rai in various markets, including the DFS showdown contests on Wednesday night.
Whether it’s a first-round leader bet or a daily DFS build, these are options that boast an incredibly high ceiling when trying to aim for the moon – even if their floors are more volatile than some of their counterparts. It’s important to remember the type of contest you’re participating in, as less aggressive approaches land in the realm of gambling, while aggression is more suited to high-end outcomes like outright betting and betting. first-round leader concepts, but understanding the nuances of how to back a golfer is part of the equation to becoming a better DFS bettor or player.
Is there a distance advantage on Thursday in wetter conditions?
Rain has been a big part of the picture leading up to the start of this tournament, does that mean the distance could take on a more frontal approach if conditions are mild?
I certainly think that’s a possibility since the three par 5s range between 562 and 608 yards. Additionally, five of the par-4s are behemoths in their own right, measuring 486 to 505 yards in each spot, meaning eight of the 18 holes will require a driver off the tee. If so, look for golfers like Cameron Young, Luke List and maybe even Dylan Frittelli to get an extra boost on Thursday if conditions don’t allow for as much deployment to start the week.
Referring to the table above, the higher the number for the impact of distance needed, the more level a player needs to be when conditions are mild. This list contains the top 13 climbers in my model when distance grew in importance, suggesting that all of these names are more intriguing than they otherwise would have been on Wednesday. Had I had the chance to rebuild my first-round leader card, I probably would have taken a more aggressive approach with some of these names.
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